So in Ask the Staff, Nova posted this:

Probably 4.5-5.5 months, but then it’s the wild hunt after that. So you could have a three month timer but just miss the spring grab and then because there’s no summer grab run for like 9 months or so.
Yes, t3-1 has shorter times than t2 + 0
If you raise a tier it will look at if the new time from now is shorter then the remaining time and update it if so.
Lowering a tier won’t matter.
Being captured resets the timer to just like you just created.
No, avoiding logging in won’t work. If you haven’t logged in for I think 3 months it will skip you though.

Given this, as of Fall 2026 everyone currently on grid will be grabbed by the Hunt, regardless of when they were created. At this point, because the “escape unethically” option is single use, and most people will either have used it already, or decided it wasn’t right for their character, all characters will be tier locked for 2.5 months following the Hunt. For most people this will mean being T1.

Assuming they keep the character, they’ll spend the 2.5 months as a T1, and then get about 3 months where they can be T2 again before being grabbed for the Hunt in the Spring at which point they’ll spend another 2.5 months at T1 before getting about 3 months as a T2. (this doesn’t add up to 6 months because the time in the helpfiles for both the hunt, and the stuck duration seem to be lower than the actual time we’re waiting).

If they stay T1, then they MIGHT not get grabbed in the spring, we’re not sure, but they’ll certainly be grabbed the following Fall.

T3’s will be in a similar boat, except that they’ll have to pay a 25k karma tax every 6 months to play T3 about half the time.
T4’s will probably be unplayable except over the summer as they’ll likely have to refresh every 3 months normally, and have only about 2 weeks of play before being grabbed again. For this privelege they’ll pay 50k karma.
T5’s are definitely unplayable, having a 100k karma tax to pay every six months, which will allow them about 3 months in the summer where they get their T5 abilities.

While the karma cost in the help file is less than what I listed above, that’s only relevant if you delete your existing character and start with a new one. If you intend to keep the same character, you have to pay the full cost of the tier you lost.

Because of the regular interruptions in Tier, I suspect many casual players will just sort of settle into T1 as it’s the only way to play a consistent character that isn’t bopping up and down in power level.

I’m not going to comment on this game design, but I will say that for someone that likes to kind of settle into a character and not worry about maintenance, assuming I continue to play after Fall I’ll probably just stay with T1 and make the best of it.